Researcher Iain Currie works closely with actuaries and the Profession to produce groundbreaking research on mortality modelling and forecasting.

In 2009/09, Dr Currie worked with research student James Kirkby to develop a method of forecasting mortality rates that incorporates unusual events such as a bird flu epidemic or extreme weather, also known as 'period shocks'.

He enjoys working with actuaries to produce studies that could have a real impact on the way the industry works. He cites a recent paper on longevity risk and annuity pricing with the Lee-Carter family of models, in which he analysed the risk of forecasting using a particular member of that family.

"There are obvious connections with the credit crunch here since some, at least, of our current woes stem from a blind belief in the correctness of certain financial models." In his research, Dr Currie works on the statistics and the actuaries involved carry out the actuarial applications. He said he valued the opportunity to work independently of the Profession, although with its support, to produce research which had benefits for actuaries and the financial industry as a whole.

Dr Currie said he was looking forward to further improving the accuracy of mortality modelling used by actuaries in the future. "Forecasting mortality with limited data is a problem of interest to actuaries. I have some ideas for tackling this problem."

“I enjoy working with actuaries to produce studies that could have a real impact on the way the industry works.”

Iain Currie

Lecturer and researcher,
Heriot-Watt University