Library and research activity
Members of the Profession can now access
a range of electronic resources direct from their PC, using Athens - a portal which is also used by many academic institutions.
A full catalogue of the Profession's archive was completed in 2007. The focus is now on preserving the content of the archive for research purposes
and the production of a digital presentation of key manuscripts of actuarial innovation and heritage.
A number of historical texts have been added to the collection, including:
- An Alarum against Usurers, Thomas Lodge, 1584. This includes evidence of a debtor having to repay his moneylender a 'life-annuity'
- Past Growth and Present State of the City of London, Corbyn Morris, 1751. A first edition and used by James Dodson to calculate mortality rates and level annual premiums by age for those applying for life assurance
- Rules for the contributory Drury Lane Theatrical Fund. This was set up by actor David Garrick in 1775 and is still running. The fund is designed to support actors "whose age or infirmities should oblige them to retire from the stage", and may become the longest running occupational benefit scheme.
Research activity is a key part of the Profession's role in promoting actuarial thought leadership. Recent studies have included:
- A study into the detrimental effects of obesity on life expectancy in the UK. Ben Rickayzen, Les Mayhew, Jon Richardson. The research used actuarial calculations of Body Mass Index (weight, in kilograms, divided by the square of the height, in metres) and waist to height (WTH) ratio measures to gauge the impact of excess fat on mortality. It was the first study of its kind to use data from the UK to quantify the years of life lost by an individual to obesity
- Smooth models of mortality with period shocks. James Kirkby and Iain Currie. The researchers developed a method of forecasting mortality rates that incorporates unusual events such as a bird flu epidemic or extreme weather. It can be used to measure volatility in mortality forecasts and will prove valuable to pension scheme actuaries in modelling and forecasting mortality rates.
- Smoothing over-parameterized regression models with applications to mortality data. Iain Currie. The study discussed the difficulties of using penalized splines to smooth over-parameterized regression models and suggested a new smoothing paradigm, direct smoothing with B-splines and penalties, or direct P-splines, or DP-splines for short
- Including count data in claims reserving. Anders Jessen, Richard Verrall, Jens Perch Nielsen. A so-called paid run-off triangle is considered in this study and it is assumed that the numbers of reported claims (in a similar triangular array) are observable. The researchers set up a stochastic model (built on a compound Poisson framework) using only these two triangular arrays for data. The model takes into account the delay from when a claim is incurred and to when it is reported (the IBNR delay) and the delay from when a claim is reported and to when it is fully paid (the RBNS delay).
